Off intraday high below 110.00 amid risk-off mood

  • USD/JPY takes a U-turn from intraday top but stays positive for the fourth consecutive day.
  • Virus woes, US-China trade war fears weigh on risks amid a quiet day.
  • BOJ’s “Summary of Opinions” back extensive monetary policy easing.
  • Risk catalysts remain the key amid a light calendar.

USD/JPY steps back from the day’s peak of 109.80 to 109.68 as markets in Tokyo open for Monday’s trading. While challenges to the sentiment, in the form of coronavirus (COVID-19) resurgence and US-China trade war tensions, the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) latest “Summary of Opinions” also played their role to pull the quote backward. Even so, the yen pair flashes a four-day winning streak amid the broad US dollar strength, despite Friday’s pullback.

BOJ’s initial hints for the latest monetary policy meeting suggest the Japanese central bank’s unaffected support for the easy money measures. As per the latest BOJ Summary of Opinions, conveyed by Reuters, “the current policy framework is hoped to serve for many years ahead as the basic guidance for monetary policy easing.”  

Other than the BOJ, worsening coronavirus (COVID-19) conditions in Europe and fresh virus-led activity restrictions in Australia’s Queensland also weigh on USD/JPY prices. Further, the latest comments from US Trade Representative Katherine Tai, suggesting further US-China trade tussle, also challenge the market sentiment.

It’s worth mentioning that global traders cheered receding reflation fears and US President Joe Biden’s push for faster vaccinations on Friday. The same joined soft US inflation and income-spending data to trigger the US dollar index (DXY) pullback. Also on the risk-positive side were chatters surrounding $3.0 trillion infrastructure plan from US President Biden.

Given the latest risk-off mood, the DXY refrains from extending Friday’s market optimism while also flashing 0.44% intraday losses of the S&P 500 Futures.

Considering the lack of major data/events scheduled for publishing during the day, except for the US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, risk catalysts are the key to watch for near-term trade direction.

Technical analysis

Unless dropping back below the intraday top of 109.36, USD/JPY sellers are less likely to take the risks. On the contrary, bulls are waiting for the 110.00 crossover for further ruling.


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