NZD/USD Breaks The Upper End Of A Sideways Range

traded higher on Thursday, breaking above the upper bound of the sideways range that had been containing most of the price action since Nov. 25. In our view, this has changed from a short-term outlook to positive one for now.

We believe that the bulls could soon challenge the 0.6895 barrier, marked by the high of Nov. 25, the break of which could trigger extensions towards the high of Nov. 23, at 0.6955.

If they are unwilling to stop there, we could see them aiming for the inside swing low of Nov. 22, at 0.6982, or the high of Nov. 22, at 0.7013.

Shifting attention to our short-term oscillators, we see that the RSI lies above 70 but turns down, while the MACD runs above both its zero and trigger lines but slows down as well.

Both indicators detect strong upside speed, which supports the notion for further advances in the near term. Still, their slowdown suggests that a small setback may be looming before the next positive leg, perhaps after the bulls challenge the 0.6895 level.

Now, to start examining the bearish case, we would like to see a clear dip below the lower end of the aforementioned range, at around 0.6735. This could initially aim for the 0.6700 zone, which supported December 15th and 20th.

Another break could see scope for more significant declines towards the 0.6615 barrier, which is marked as a support by the low of Nov. 4, at 0.6615.

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