EUR/USD Weekly Outlook – Action Forex

EUR/USD dropped sharply last week but failed to break 1.1284 support. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Price action from 1.1185 are seen as corrective move. Break of 1.1284 will argue that larger down trend from 1.2348 is ready to resume. Intraday bias will be back on the downside for retesting 1.1185 low first. Also, in case of another rise, upside should be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.2265 to 1.1185 at 1.1598 eventually.

In the bigger picture, there are various ways of interpreting the fall from 1.2348 (2021 high). It could be a correction to rise from 1.0635 (2020 low), the fourth leg of a sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low), or resuming long term down trend. In any case, outlook will now stay bearish as long as 1.1703 support turned resistance holds. Sustained break of 61.8% retracement of 1.0635 to 1.2348 at 1.1289 would pave the way back to 1.0635.

In the long term picture, EUR/USD has possibly failed 1.2555 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 1.0339 at 1.2516) again. Long term outlook will remain neutral as sideway pattern from 1.0339 (2017 low) is extending with another medium term fall. For now, we’d hold back from assessing the chance of downside breakout, and monitor the momentum of the decline from 1.2348 first.

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